NBA Defensive Player of the Year 2024-25: Frontrunners, Dark Horses, and Predictions

The NBA Defensive Player of the Year award remains one of the league’s most prestigious honors, recognizing the player who makes the most significant impact on the defensive end. As we look ahead to the 2024-25 season, the race appears wide open with several elite defenders vying for the coveted trophy.

This 1,800-word definitive guide examines:

✔ Top contenders and their defensive specialties
✔ Advanced metrics that decide the winner
✔ Under-the-radar candidates to watch
✔ How rule changes impact defensive strategies
✔ Historical voting patterns and biases

The Favorites: Top 5 DPOY Candidates

1. Rudy Gobert (Minnesota Timberwolves)

• Defensive Credentials: 3-time DPOY, anchor of NBA’s #1 defense

• 2023-24 Stats: 12.9 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 98.3 Defensive Rating

• Unique Impact: Opponents shoot 12.5% worse at rim vs Gobert

• Odds: +300 (via NBA NewsZ)

2. Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs)

• Defensive Credentials: Led NBA in blocks (3.6 BPG) as rookie

• 2023-24 Stats: 3.6 BPG, 1.2 SPG, 5.8 Defensive Win Shares

• Unique Impact: Can guard 1-5 effectively

• Odds: +350

3. Bam Adebayo (Miami Heat)

• Defensive Credentials: 5-time All-Defensive Team

• 2023-24 Stats: 1.1 SPG, 0.9 BPG, switchability unmatched

• Unique Impact: Best big-man perimeter defender

• Odds: +450

4. Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors)

• Defensive Credentials: 2017 DPOY, defensive QB

• 2023-24 Stats: 1.0 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 104.3 DefRtg

• Unique Impact: Warriors defense collapses without him

• Odds: +600

5. Evan Mobley (Cleveland Cavaliers)

• Defensive Credentials: 2023 runner-up

• 2023-24 Stats: 1.5 BPG, 105.1 DefRtg

• Unique Impact: Mobile 7-footer who guards wings

• Odds: +700

Advanced Defensive Metrics Breakdown

NBA Defensive Player of the Year, The award increasingly relies on these key stats:

“Modern voters weigh advanced metrics more heavily than basic counting stats.” – NBA.com analytics team

Perimeter Defender Dark Horses

1. Alex Caruso (Chicago Bulls)

• Why: Best guard defender (99.9 DefRtg)

• Challenge: Guards rarely win DPOY

2. Jrue Holiday (Boston Celtics)

• Why: Still elite at point-of-attack defense

• Challenge: Reduced role on stacked team

3. Herbert Jones (New Orleans Pelicans)

• Why: Length disrupts elite wings

• Challenge: Low national profile

How Rule Changes Affect the Race

Recent NBA adjustments favoring offense mean:

• Help defenders more valuable than ever

• Versatility prized over specialist skills

• Team defense matters more in voting

This helps two-way bigs like Wembanyama over pure rim protectors.

Historical Voting Trends

NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Last 10 DPOY winners show:

• 8 centers, 2 forwards (no guards)

• 7 played for top-5 defenses

• Average of 2.0+ blocks/steals combo

• Only 2 winners under 6’9″ (Kawhi, Smart)

Key Factors That Will Decide 2025 DPOY

1. Team Defense Ranking (Must be top-10)

2. Versatility (Switchability valued)

3. Highlight Plays (Chase-down blocks, etc.)

4. Narrative (First-time winner bias)

5. Games Played (Minimum 65-game threshold)

Predicted Finish for 2024-25

After analyzing all factors:

Winner: Victor Wembanyama
Why: Unprecedented block numbers + improved team defense
Runner-Up: Rudy Gobert
Dark Horse: Evan Mobley

“Wembanyama’s ability to protect the rim and defend on the perimeter gives him the edge in today’s NBA.” – NBA NewsZ Defensive Analyst

Read More: NBA Rookie of the Year 2024-25: Early Favorites, Sleepers, and Predictions

How to Follow the DPOY Race

NBA Defensive Player of the Year, For updated analysis:

• Track NBA NewsZ’s Defensive Metrics

• Monitor NBA.com’s Defensive Dashboard

• Watch key matchups between elite defenders