The NBA Rookie of the Year 2024-25 season is shaping up to be one of the most competitive battles in recent memory. With a loaded draft class featuring both high-ceiling prospects and NBA-ready talents, the competition for the Eddie Gottlieb Trophy will be fierce from opening night through April.
This 2,000-word definitive guide provides:
✔ Top 10 ROY candidates with detailed analysis
✔ Statistical projections for each contender
✔ Dark horse candidates who could surprise
✔ Historical voting trends that matter
✔ Team situations that boost ROY chances
The Favorites: Top 5 ROY Candidates
1. Zaccharie Risacher (Atlanta Hawks)
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Draft Position: #1 overall
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Position: Forward
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Strengths: Elite 3&D potential, NBA-ready body
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Projected Stats: 14.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 38% 3PT
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Odds: +250 (via NBA NewsZ)
“Risacher’s immediate role as Hawks’ starting SF gives him the inside track.” – ESPN Draft Analyst
2. Alex Sarr (Washington Wizards)
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Draft Position: #2 overall
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Position: Center
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Strengths: Elite rim protection, switchability
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Projected Stats: 12.8 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 2.3 BPG
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Odds: +300
3. Reed Sheppard (Houston Rockets)
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Draft Position: #3 overall
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Position: Guard
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Strengths: Shooting, basketball IQ
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Projected Stats: 11.2 PPG, 4.5 APG, 41% 3PT
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Odds: +400
4. Stephon Castle (San Antonio Spurs)
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Draft Position: #4 overall
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Position: Guard/Forward
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Strengths: Defense, playmaking
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Projected Stats: 10.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.8 APG
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Odds: +500
5. Matas Buzelis (Chicago Bulls)
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Draft Position: #11 overall
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Position: Forward
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Strengths: Versatility, scoring
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Projected Stats: 13.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG
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Odds: +600
Key Factors That Decide ROY Winners
NBA Rookie of the Year 2024-25, Historical analysis shows voters prioritize:
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Scoring Average (18 of last 20 winners averaged 12+ PPG)
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Team Role (Starters win 85% of time over bench players)
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Team Success (Rookies on playoff teams get boost)
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Highlight Plays (Dunks/blocks attract attention)
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Second-Half Surges (Late-season play sticks in voters’ minds)
Dark Horse Candidates
1. Dalton Knecht (Los Angeles Lakers)
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Why: Instant-offense skills fit LeBron timeline
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Sleeper Stat: 25.2 PPG in SEC last season
2. Tidjane Salaun (Charlotte Hornets)
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Why: Will get major minutes on rebuilding team
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Sleeper Stat: 6’10” with 38% 3PT in France
3. Devin Carter (Sacramento Kings)
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Why: Elite defender fits Kings’ needs
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Sleeper Stat: Led combine in max vertical (42″)
Team Situations That Boost ROY Chances
These franchises offer ideal ROY conditions:
| Team | Why It Matters | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Wizards | No pressure to win | Bilal Coulibaly ’23 |
| Spurs | Development focus | Wembanyama ’23 |
| Hornets | Need young talent | LaMelo ’21 |
| Rockets | Willing to play youth | Jabari Smith ’22 |
Historical ROY Voting Trends
NBA Rookie of the Year 2024-25, Last decade reveals:
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7 guards, 3 forwards won (no centers)
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Average winner played 30+ MPG
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Only 2 winners were older than 22 (Malcolm Brogdon, Scottie Barnes)
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15 of last 20 were top-5 picks
Projected Stats for Top Rookies
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risacher | 14.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 44% |
| Sarr | 12.8 | 8.4 | 1.5 | 48% |
| Sheppard | 11.2 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 46% |
| Castle | 10.8 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 43% |
| Buzelis | 13.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 45% |
Potential ROY Spoilers
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Injuries to frontrunners
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Unexpected trades opening minutes
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Summer League standouts carrying momentum
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Voter fatigue with top picks
Final 2024-25 ROY Prediction
After evaluating all factors:
Winner: Zaccharie Risacher
Why: Perfect blend of opportunity, skills and team context
Runner-Up: Alex Sarr
Dark Horse: Dalton Knecht
“Risacher’s two-way game and immediate starting role give him the edge in what should be a tight race.” – NBA NewsZ Rookie Analyst
Read More: NBA Most Improved Player 2024-25: Breakout Candidates and Award Predictions
How to Follow the ROY Race
For updated analysis:
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Track NBA NewsZ’s Rookie Watch
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Monitor NBA.com’s Rookie Ladder
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Watch key matchups between top rookies
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