The NBA Preseason Surprises & Disappointments has once again delivered shocking performances, breakout stars, and concerning red flags that could shape the upcoming 2024-25 season. While preseason results should always be taken with caution, the trends we’re seeing reveal important clues about which teams overperformed expectations and which contenders might be in trouble.
In this exclusive 1,500-word analysis, we’ll break down:
✅ The 5 most pleasant surprises of preseason
✅ 3 concerning disappointments that could linger
✅ Rookie performances that turned heads
✅ Veterans showing unexpected decline
✅ What these trends mean for the regular season
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NBA Preseason Surprises & Disappointments Context: What Matters and What Doesn’t
Before diving into surprises, let’s establish what preseason performances actually indicate:
✔ Player Development (Skill improvements are real)
✔ Rotation Clarity (Coach decisions reveal priorities)
✔ Health Indicators (Movement quality matters)
✖ Final Scores (Outcomes are meaningless)
✖ Small Sample Sizes (4-5 games isn’t predictive)
✖ Garbage Time Stats (Beware inflated numbers)
With that framework, here’s what actually matters from 2024’s preseason action.
Top 5 Pleasant Preseason Surprises
1. Chet Holmgren’s Offensive Leap (Thunder)
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Stats: 21.4 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 3.1 BPG on 58/42/90 splits
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Key Improvement: Added 15 pounds of muscle, now finishing through contact
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Why It Matters: OKC’s ceiling just got higher with his two-way dominance
2. Houston’s Defensive Transformation
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Stats: #1 in defensive rating (98.3)
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Key Change: Dillon Brooks mentoring Amen Thompson/Jabari Smith
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Why It Matters: Last year’s 29th-ranked defense now looks elite
3. Victor Wembanyama’s Playmaking
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Stats: 5.4 APG (up from 2.8 last preseason)
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Key Improvement: Spurs running offense through him at the elbow
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Why It Matters: Unlocks new dimension for San Antonio’s attack
4. Cam Whitmore’s Breakout (Rockets)
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Stats: 18.7 PPG in 22 MPG
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Key Skill: First-step quickness now NBA-ready
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Why It Matters: Houston’s bench just got scarier
5. Bucks’ Revamped Defense
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Stats: Held opponents to 39% shooting with Dame/Lillard lineup
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Key Change: Adrian Griffin implementing aggressive schemes
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Why It Matters: Last year’s fatal flaw may be fixed
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3 Concerning Preseason Disappointments
1. Suns’ Offensive Chemistry
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Issue: -12.3 net rating with Booker/Beal/Durant on court
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Root Cause: Too much iso, not enough movement
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Verdict: Early warning sign for Frank Vogel
2. Zion Williamson’s Conditioning
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Issue: Averaged just 4.7 FTA per game (down from 8.2)
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Root Cause: Still avoiding contact in paint
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Verdict: Pelicans should be worried
3. Warriors’ Frontcourt Depth
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Issue: Outrebounded by 7.1 per game
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Root Cause: Looney/Green can’t play 48 minutes
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Verdict: Championship hopes depend on trade
Rookies Who Outperformed Expectations
| Player | Team | Preseason Stats | Draft Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ja’Kobe Walter | CHI | 14.3 PPG, 41% 3PT | #18 |
| Tidjane Salaun | CHA | 12.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG | #6 |
| Bub Carrington | BKN | 6.8 APG (2.1 TOV) | #22 |
Sleeper Pick: Pacers’ Tristen Newton (2nd round) showing elite POA defense
Veterans Showing Decline
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Chris Paul (Warriors)
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Lost quickness defending PNR
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Shooting just 31% on wide-open 3s
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Klay Thompson (Warriors)
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Lateral movement still compromised
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Allowed 58% DFG% at rim
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Rudy Gobert (Timberwolves)
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Drop coverage looks outdated
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-8.7 on/off despite weak competition
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What These Trends Mean for Regular Season
Betting Implications
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Over Teams: Thunder (+900), Rockets (+2500)
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Under Teams: Suns (+650), Pelicans (+1800)
Fantasy Sleepers
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Cam Whitmore (HOU)
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Ja’Kobe Walter (CHI)
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Amen Thompson (HOU)
Trade Targets
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Suns may need point guard
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Warriors shopping for bigs
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Pelicans could move Zion
Final Verdict: NBA Preseason Surprises & Disappointments Takeaways That Matter
✅ Thunder & Rockets are legit playoff teams
✅ Suns have real chemistry issues
✅ Wemby/Chet are future MVP candidates
✅ Warriors’ roster has fatal flaws
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