NBA MVP Race 2024, NBA season has delivered one of the most competitive MVP races in league history, with three generational talents putting up historic numbers while leading their teams to championship contention. As we approach the season’s final stretch, the award remains completely up for grabs between a two-time winner, a reigning champion, and an ascendant superstar.
The Frontrunners: By the Numbers
1. Luka Dončić (Dallas Mavericks)
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34.6 PPG (1st in NBA)
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9.8 RPG (3rd among guards)
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9.2 APG (2nd in NBA)
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62.1% True Shooting
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Mavs Record: 48-20 (3rd in West)
Case For:
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Carrying worst defense to top-3 seed
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8 games with 50+ points
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Leads NBA in clutch scoring
Case Against:
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Klay Thompson’s addition helped
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Defensive limitations remain
“Luka’s doing things we haven’t seen since peak Jordan,” said NBA NewsZ analyst Tim Legler.
2. Nikola Jokić (Denver Nuggets)
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26.1 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 9.0 APG
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68.3% True Shooting (career-high)
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Nuggets Record: 50-18 (1st in West)
Case For:
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Most efficient season ever for a center
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Denver’s consistent dominance
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Leads NBA in win shares
Case Against:
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Voter fatigue (would be 3rd MVP in 4 years)
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Less narrative urgency than rivals
3. Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics)
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30.8 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 5.1 APG
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42% from three (career-high)
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Celtics Record: 54-14 (1st in NBA)
Case For:
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Best player on best team
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Improved defense/playmaking
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Redemption arc after 2024 Finals
**Case Against:
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Stacked roster helps numbers
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Fewer “wow” moments than Luka/Jokić
The Advanced Metrics Breakdown
| Player | PER | Win Shares | VORP | On/Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dončić | 32.1 | 12.3 | 8.1 | +12.3 |
| Jokić | 31.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | +11.7 |
| Tatum | 28.9 | 10.8 | 5.7 | +9.4 |
What History Tells Us
NBA MVP Race 2024, Recent MVP voting trends favor:
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Best player on top team (Tatum)
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Narrative/storylines (Luka’s peak)
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Statistical dominance (Jokić)
The last time three players had 30+ PERs was 1990 (Jordan, Magic, Barkley).
X-Factors That Could Decide It
1. Head-to-Head Matchups
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March 12: Mavs vs. Nuggets (Luka vs. Jokić)
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April 3: Celtics vs. Nuggets (Tatum vs. Jokić)
2. National TV Performances
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Luka’s 5 national TV 40-point games
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Jokić’s triple-double streak
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Tatum’s Christmas Day showcase
3. Team Finish
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Celtics chasing 70 wins
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Nuggets fighting for West supremacy
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Mavs needing top-4 seed
Dark Horse Candidates
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)
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30.3 PPG on 63% TS
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Thunder 2nd in West
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Elite two-way impact
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
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29.7 PPG, 12.1 RPG
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Carrying injured Bucks
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Defensive resurgence
Expert Predictions from NBA NewsZ
| Analyst | Pick | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen A. | Dončić | “Most valuable to his team” |
| Zach Lowe | Jokić | “Best player alive” |
| Doris Burke | Tatum | “Two-way dominance” |
How the Race Could Be Decided
If Voting Were Today
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Luka Dončić (38% of votes)
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Nikola Jokić (35%)
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Jayson Tatum (27%)
Potential Tiebreakers
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Celtics win 65+ games → Tatum
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Mavs get top-3 seed → Luka
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Jokić breaks PER record → 3rd MVP
What the Players Are Saying
Luka: “I just want to win. Stats don’t matter.”
Jokić: “It’s Tatum’s year. Best team, best player.”
Tatum: “I’d trade MVP for a championship.”
Read More: NBA Offseason Grades 2024: Which Teams Nailed Their Moves and Who Failed Miserably?
Final Prediction With 20 Games Left
After analyzing all factors, NBA NewsZ projects:
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Luka Dončić – Historic offensive burden
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Nikola Jokić – Slight voter fatigue
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Jayson Tatum – Team success matters
“This might be the closest three-way vote in NBA history,” said Hall of Famer Charles Barkley.
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