The winner of this sequence goes to win the NBA title.

In all probability. Perhaps. Nothing is for certain in life or this upside-down NBA season, however the path opens up for the winner of this Nets vs. Bucks second-round showdown. Within the East, Joel Embiid‘s broken knee ligament makes the 76ers rather more weak, and out West LeBron James and the Lakers are gone, Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers don’t perceive the phrase consistency (or have a solution for Luka Doncic), and both of those two East groups can beat Utah or anybody else within the convention.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets for all of the marbles.

Listed here are three issues to look at on this vital second-round sequence.

1) Does Brooklyn have anybody who can gradual Giannis Antetokounmpo?

Brooklyn just isn’t an excellent defensive staff. Not that it issues. They didn’t have to be a terrific protection within the common season (finest offense within the NBA) or within the first spherical towards Boston, which had Jayson Tatum and never sufficient else. The Nets 117.6 defensive ranking within the first spherical was barely worse than the playoff league common however would have been tied for worst within the league over 72 video games. Nonetheless, the Nets had the second-best web ranking within the first spherical because of that insane offense (132.6 web ranking, all stats by way of Cleansing the Glass).

The Bucks carry two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo to the celebration, plus an All-NBA degree participant in Khris Middleton, an All-Star degree two-way level guard in Jrue Vacation, and shooters in every single place you look.

Slowing Antetokounmpo goes to be an issue for Brooklyn and will swing the sequence. Who does Brooklyn need to match up? Kevin Durant is the staff’s finest defender and has the size and athleticism, however Antetokounmpo would each overpower KD and get him in foul hassle. Dangerous concept. Nicholas Claxton would get overwhelmed bodily. Blake Griffin will get blown by like he’s a visitors cone. Within the common season the Nets went quite a bit with DeAndre Jordan, having him drop manner again and daring Antetokounmpo to turn out to be a bounce shooter, however he won’t take that bait for lengthy and can assault into house given him for brief floaters at worst. Jeff Inexperienced is an possibility as soon as and if he will get wholesome. James Harden probably will get turns, he’s sturdy sufficient and has nice arms defensively, however the danger is him entering into foul hassle.

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There aren’t any good solutions for Brooklyn, and if Antetokounmpo has a monster sequence — which could be very doable — it turns into that a lot more durable to beat the Bucks. My guess is we see a number of Harden on Antetokounmpo and Durant on Middleton, however with all of the switching and mismatches on this sequence, all the things might be about assist and depth.

2) Can Milwaukee decelerate the Nets offense even a bit bit?

Milwaukee exorcized a number of demons in its first-round sweep of Miami, and so they did with a protection that gave up lower than some extent per possession within the significant minutes of video games (not counting rubbish time). The Bucks didn’t emphasize it this common season as they did previous ones, however that is an elite protection.

Nonetheless, can it match up with the Nets offense that could be as nice a set of expertise as the sport has seen? The Bucks could have the very best probability to gradual this offense of any staff within the league, however even that will not be sufficient.

Jrue Vacation will probably draw the Kyrie Irving project a lot of the sequence (though he’ll see Harden time as properly). Irving’s handles will get him high quality appears to be like towards any defender, however Vacation is fast and robust sufficient to make life troublesome for him (as a lot as anybody can). Antetokounmpo and Middleton will each get time on the Durant project, and attempt to use their size and athleticism to gradual one of many best scorers the sport has ever seen. P.J. Tucker will get priceless minutes on this position as properly.

The true problem is Harden, and that is the place the Bucks will miss Donte DiVincenzo; he would have been by far their best choice on this spot. Antetokounmpo and Middleton could get time right here, as will Pat Connaughton, a stable defender towards gamers who simply attempt to overpower him with power. Tucker might get some turns right here. Connaughton additionally will get time on Joe Harris.

The Bucks will strain the Nets perimeter gamers and guess on Brook Lopez, being dropped again into the paint, could make it robust to simply drive to the rim for dunks and lay-ups. Can Blake Griffin hit sufficient threes to tug Lopez out of the paint? That is the place the Nets will miss Inexperienced till (or if) he returns this sequence.

The Bucks defenders had been on a string towards the Warmth, and this can be a lengthy and gifted staff on that finish of the ground. However is it sufficient.

3) James Harden is the important thing to this sequence

Harden was the important thing to the Nets season, and his efficiency is my largest X-factor on this sequence.

At factors towards the Celtics within the first spherical, these Nets appeared jogged my memory of the 2011 Warmth, the primary yr of their large three: You’re taking a flip, then I take a flip, then he takes a flip, and all of us play subsequent to one another and never really “with” each other. It’s price noting that Warmth staff misplaced within the Finals however got here again the subsequent season and, underneath Erik Spoelstra, discovered find out how to play off each other, and so they picked up the subsequent two titles.

Harden is the man who will get Brooklyn enjoying with each other, the man who will get the ball shifting side-to-side, will get the gamers shifting off the ball, and turns the Nets offense into one thing extra. You may see it in Sport 2 towards Miami when Brooklyn had 31 assists (67% of their made baskets) and 6 gamers in double figures in scoring.

That’s the Nets staff that wins this sequence. As gifted as Brooklyn is, in the event that they line up and go mano-y-mano towards Milwaukee, it performs into the Bucks’ arms — Irving could drive round Vacation and get within the paint however then has to hit a contested floater over Lopez. Preserve the ball shifting and possibly Jordan/Claxton will get an alley-oop out of the dunker’s spot, or a kick-out and fast move results in Joe Harris getting time to set his ft and line up a 3. When the Nets transfer the ball and get out in transition, no one can gradual their offense.

If Harden has an enormous sequence, the Nets get the win. However, if the Nets fall an excessive amount of into isolation basketball — as nice as they’re at it with elite isolation scorers — they are often overwhelmed.

PREDICTION: Nets in 7 video games… however I don’t really feel comfy about it. This sequence is a coin flip.

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Three issues to look at: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets initially appeared on NBCSports.com