Joel Embiid’s Injury, The 2024 NBA MVP race took a dramatic turn when Joel Embiid went down with a meniscus injury in late January, potentially sidelining the Philadelphia 76ers superstar for the remainder of the regular season. This development didn’t just impact the Sixers’ championship aspirations—it completely rewrote the MVP conversation, creating a wide-open battle between Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
In this 1,500+ word exclusive, we analyze:
✔ Embiid’s historic pre-injury stats (and why they still matter)
✔ How Philadelphia collapsed without their MVP (the shocking numbers)
✔ Jokic vs. SGA vs. Giannis: The new MVP frontrunners broken down
✔ The hidden CBA rule that may cost Embiid eligibility
✔ What history tells us about injured players winning MVP
Plus, we’ll reveal the one advanced stat that proves why this remains the closest MVP race in a decade.
Embiid’s Pre-Injury Dominance: A Season for the Ages
Before his injury, Embiid was putting together one of the most statistically dominant campaigns in NBA history:
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35.3 PPG (Would be 9th highest scoring average ever)
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11.3 RPG (Career high)
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5.7 APG (More than Jokic’s first MVP season)
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1.8 BPG (Led all centers)
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53.3% FG / 36.8% 3P / 88.3% FT (Near 50/40/90 for a center)
According to NBA NewsZ, Embiid’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 34.5 was on pace to be the second-highest ever, trailing only Wilt Chamberlain’s 1962-63 season.
“We were witnessing arguably the most unstoppable offensive force since prime Shaq. The injury robbed us of seeing how historic this could’ve been.” — ESPN’s Brian Windhorst
The Sixers’ Freefall: By The Numbers
Joel Embiid’s Injury, Since Embiid’s injury on January 30:
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Record: 8-12 (Fell from 3rd to 6th in East)
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Offensive Rating: 112.4 (24th in NBA)
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Defensive Rating: 119.1 (20th)
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Net Rating: -6.7 (25th)
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Maxey’s efficiency: 43% FG (down from 48%)
The numbers prove what the eye test shows—Philadelphia is a lottery team without Embiid.
The New MVP Frontrunners: Breaking Down the Cases
1. Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
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26.1 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 9.0 APG (Nearly averaging a triple-double)
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NBA-best +12.3 net rating when on court
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League-leading 8.7 OBPM (Offensive Box Plus/Minus)
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
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31.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 6.4 APG (NBA’s most efficient high-volume scorer)
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2.3 SPG (Leads all guards)
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OKC’s surprise rise to top-3 in West
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
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30.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 6.4 APG (Most versatile stat line)
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63.5% true shooting (Career high)
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Carrying Bucks through coaching change
The CBA Rule That Could Disqualify Embiid
The NBA’s new 65-game minimum for awards eligibility puts Embiid’s MVP case in jeopardy:
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Currently at 34 games played
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Would need to play 31 of final 38 games (unlikely)
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No player has ever won MVP missing 25+ games
Historical Precedent: Can Embiid Still Win?
Only two players have won MVP while missing significant time:
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Bill Walton (1978): Missed 24 games (58-game season)
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Allen Iverson (2001): Missed 11 games (71-game season)
Embiid would need to return by early March and play nearly every game to qualify—a tall order for a meniscus recovery.
The One Stat That Decides the Race
Clutch Win Probability Added (Last 5 Minutes, +/- 5 Pts):
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SGA: +4.3 (1st in NBA)
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Jokic: +3.1 (3rd)
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Giannis: +2.8 (5th)
This metric suggests SGA has been the most valuable in winning time—a key MVP differentiator.
Read More: Lakers & Warriors Playoff Push: Will These Aging Superstars Survive the West Gauntlet?
Final Prediction: Who Takes Home the Hardware?
✅ Jokic 45% chance (Narrative + consistency)
✅ SGA 35% (Breakout story + clutch stats)
✅ Giannis 15% (If Bucks finish 1st)
✅ Embiid 5% (If returns early and dominates)
For more award-winning NBA analysis, visit NBA NewsZ—the web’s most trusted basketball authority.
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