The Guardian

Belichick’s exit plan and a JJ Watt commerce: NFL subplots to observe in 2021

Will Aaron Rodgers depart Inexperienced Bay after an MVP-caliber season? Will Invoice Belichick depart New England earlier than it turns ugly? There’s no scarcity of meaty NFL plotlines in 2021The NFL’s basic angle in direction of 2020 might be summed up succinctly: What pandemic?Whereas different leagues floor to a halt, thought-about voiding their seasons, entered into complicated bubbles or confronted existential crises, the NFL thundered alongside, with the type of bravado that’s afforded solely to the most important and baddest and most-watched on the block.Some precautions have been taken. Preseason was out. Masks mandates have been in. However the backside line was this: Irrespective of the lineup, irrespective of the ridiculousness of the spectacle, irrespective of the well being penalties, soccer might be performed. And, generally, it was successful. Covid has the potential to embarrass the league in Week 17, the ultimate week of the season, and we nonetheless have no idea the extent of the well being penalties, however for essentially the most half the league acquired its want: The season might be accomplished on time. Because the calendar flips from 2020 to 2021, listed below are some subplots to control. Aaron Rodgers’ futureAs of now, Rodgers possible has his title etched on the MVP trophy. Voters love a story, and the Rodgers Revenge Tour is a greater narrative than ‘isn’t Patrick Mahomes droningly glorious?’ It’s the Michael Jordan syndrome. (Voters truly gave Karl Malone an MVP award throughout Jordan’s prime. That’s an actual factor that occurred.)However it’s not that way back that the Packers chosen Jordan Love within the first spherical of the draft, that Rodgers’ future was up within the air, that the staff had clearly chosen his substitute, that it was only a matter of when not if Rodgers would go away.Rodgers has been terrific this season. His recreation has developed. The improvisational off-script, jazz artist remains to be there, however he’s married that with the on-script rhythm that outlined his early years as a starter. It’s a lethal mixture.The facility to determine his future now sits with Rodgers. He’s acting at an MVP stage and will information the Packers to a different Tremendous Bowl title. Inexperienced Bay will need to hold the 38-year-old round till he actually begins to say no. However will Rodgers take issues into his personal palms this offseason? How upset was he actually by the love choice? With attainable quarterback openings in such sizzling spots as New England, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, may Rodgers look to push his means out of title city as the ultimate act of this yr’s tour? A franchise saleThe NFL as an entire has achieved a good job of inoculating itself from the monetary losses which have hit nearly all of sports activities leagues in the course of the pandemic. Reasonably than push video games or add weeks, the NFL stripped again its preseason and steam-rolled forward at any time when there was an indication of a well being scare. We’re taking part in soccer! Who’s able to play? Who’s watching? We’ll play them on Monday nights and Tuesday nights and Wednesday afternoons and Saturday mornings, the standard of the video games or the well being of the gamers be damned.That was a profitable technique for the league, as a lot as any league is being profitable within the Covid age. However the league remains to be made up of old-school house owners who made the majority of their cash in an old-school method. Whereas a number of house owners have stomached the monetary hit to their sporting establishment, loads have taken important losses of their non-sporting ventures.You solely need to look over to the NBA to see how even the tech-savvy, self-dubbed ‘sensible’ sport house owners have been hit by the pandemic: Tilman Fertitta, the NBA’s newest proprietor, who paid a file $2.2bn for the Houston Rockets franchise in 2017, makes his cash in casinos and eating places. His operation has been diminished to 4% in the course of the pandemic and he has been pressured to take his firm public, in addition to accepting an working mortgage from the league.There are comparable points within the NFL’s higher chamber. Some house owners are feeling the monetary prices way more than others, notably these whose wealth is predicated on proudly owning an NFL franchise. (The NFL stays the sports activities league with essentially the most ‘legacy’ possession households.)No person might be shedding a tear for the fattest of fats cats, however NFL franchises are notoriously arduous to prize away from house owners as a result of they print cash. The pandemic has modified that. The yr 2021 may usher in a band of recent house owners as these present house owners who’ve been most severely impacted by the pandemic attempt to recuperate funds. Will there be any Cam Newton takers?Newton’s one-year plan in New England was clear: Get himself to the neatest, most inventive and constant group within the sport; present that he nonetheless had loads of juice left, that he simply wanted a break; after which signal a mega-deal this coming offseason, be it re-upping with New England or elsewhere.However for as a lot as Invoice Belichick has tried to promote the Patriots-Cam Newton expertise to the media and followers this season as successful, it hasn’t labored. The Patriots’ offensive employees has been inventive and mailable, working round Newton’s idiosyncrasies and lack of accuracy. However all too usually when Newton has dropped again and tried to play with some type of rhythm, it’s regarded like he’s making an attempt to throw a drugs ballNewton’s well being is the query right here. He now not has the identical type of zip on his fastball, and his throwing accuracy that was so-so even throughout the most effective of occasions has now fully fallen off a cliff.Maybe the Patriots discuss themselves into Newton for one more season as a bridge to regardless of the staff’s quarterback future appears to be like like. Maybe they inform themselves he regarded OK previous to his Covid analysis. Maybe Belichick believes Newton, even along with his flaws, might be tremendous as soon as the Patriots are in a position to convey again the chunks of their roster that missed this season on account of COVID. However that appears unlikely. It looks like Newton, the nice pioneer, the paradigm-shifter, is finally shot. And if Belichick isn’t keen to indulge one other season, will some other staff? And if not, what does Newton do? Retire? Sit out one other yr and hope to heal? It’s arduous to think about Newton doing the rounds as a one-year employed gun on a ready-to-tank, rebuilding staff. Is that this it for Invoice Belichick?It doesn’t really feel like Belichick is slowing down. However, in some unspecified time in the future, Belichick goes to stroll away from the Patriots’ job. Belichick tried rolling issues again for yet another push this season, band-aiding collectively a roster that was lacking the core of its protection on account of Covid defections and which lacked a quarterback given Tom Brady’s transfer to Florida.Is Belichick, at his superior age, post-Covid, prepared and keen after a par yr to start out one other rebuild? He has no quarterback, and the spine of the roster that delivered the final Tremendous Bowl is beginning to creak – a majority have already or are anticipated to exit this offseason. Plus: Belichick’s employees is anticipated to be picked aside once more in the course of the offseason, each on the teaching facet and within the Patriots entrance workplace. Is it attainable he opts to stroll away earlier than issues get ugly? The Justin Fields surgeThe Jaguars have locked up the primary choose within the upcoming draft. The choice is anticipated to be Trevor Lawrence, Clemson’s once-in-a-lifetime-type quarterback prospect. However as at all times in a draft cycle, count on there to be a run on Justin Fields, the Ohio State quarterback who could be the sure-fire high choice in a conventional yr.And if former Ohio State head coach City Meyer winds up as the top honcho in Jacksonville, look out. The chatter will improve. Leaks will stream. Commerce presents will arrive.Lawrence ought to be the highest choose, however there’s a probability that Jacksonville swap spots with the Jets (for a major haul). A JJ Watt tradeJJ Watt and the Houston Texans are synonymous with each other. But when Houston is trying to generate some type of property to have the ability to enhance its roster this offseason, transferring Watt is without doubt one of the solely methods.The Texans have little to no draft capital and have one of many worst cap sheets within the league. Additionally they have a jumbled roster that’s the strolling embodiment of the fractured entrance workplace that oversaw its development over the previous 5 seasons. But there, in the midst of all of it, is Deshaun Watson, one of the vital gifted quarterbacks within the league. Having an amazing quarterback fixes so much. So for the Texans to leap again into competition, even with the roster holes and lack of flexibility out there, may take as few as 5 to 6 sensible strikes. One technique to open up some kind of flexibility, to extend the margin of error when making an attempt to make such strikes, could be to maneuver on from Watt whereas he nonetheless holds worth.It will be a troublesome transfer financially and culturally, however it will even be a savvy one. And it will enable Watt to get a shot with a unique group, the place he could get a shot over the subsequent 24 months to advance past the divisional spherical. New TV dealsAs famous within the Guardian’s 2021 daring predictions piece, the NFL’s present spherical of TV rights offers are set to run out in 2022. As sports activities proceed to be the only place that networks can financial institution on to supply a big, reside viewers, and because the NFL continues to reign supreme as the most important supplier of reside content material (eight of 2020s 10 most-watched single telecasts have been soccer video games or publish video games) the bidding is anticipated to be intense and costly.The league may look to re-up with its conventional broadcast companions. Or it may hand a extra favorable deal to ESPN/Disney, with the potential for Disney snagging itself a coveted Tremendous Bowl and transferring its broadcasts to ABC. Or it may supply bigger packages to a streaming shopper, like Amazon Prime, within the hopes of getting forward of the reside sports activities streaming curve or to attempt to make up for a few of the income the league and its house owners misplaced in 2020.